Will Jack Schlossberg be the Democratic nominee for NY-12
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
142 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12
Will Micah Lasher be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?: Micah Lasher
KXNY12D-26-MLAS
Cluster 2
Will Alex Bores be the Democratic nominee for NY-12
Will Alex Bores be the Democratic nominee for NY-12?: Alex Bores
KXNY12D-26-ABOR
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that Jack Schlossberg will win the Democratic primary for New York's 12th congressional district. At 33%, the market suggests Schlossberg is a competitive but not favored candidate in what is likely an open or contested race. The probability reflects expectations about his name recognition, fundraising capacity, and support among district voters compared to other potential candidates. Key drivers of movement would include primary field composition changes, polling data among registered Democrats in NY-12, endorsements from local party figures, and fundraising reports. The primary election date or filing deadline for NY-12 would be the critical event that determines whether this race materializes and begins to resolve the uncertainty around Schlossberg's actual viability as a nominee.
- ›New York's 12th district Democratic primary field composition and whether Schlossberg faces crowded opposition or limited challengers
- ›Public polling or survey data showing Schlossberg's name recognition and favorability among NY-12 Democratic primary voters
- ›Fundraising reports and campaign resources available to Schlossberg versus competing candidates in the district
- ›Endorsements from established Democratic figures, unions, or party organizations within New York's 12th district
- ›The filing deadline date for NY-12 primary candidates and any formal announcement of Schlossberg's candidacy
What moved the line
- Jun 12Micah Lasher↑7pp55→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Alex Bores↓5pp37→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Micah Lasher↑3pp62→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Alex Bores↓3pp41→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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