What is the current probability for "Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 23, 2027. 428 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 88.8% and 82.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic nominee for NY-13?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing June 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,335 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 66¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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60¢

Bid/Ask 49/56¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $76·OI $1,410.72·Closes Jun 23, 2027·428d remaining

KXNY13D-26-AESP

7-day price147 snapshots · 2 regime

65¢49¢ current

Apr 849¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,335 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 66¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The asymmetric implied yields (51.7% for Yes vs. 137.7% for No) and exceptionally high realized volatility of 207% suggest either thin-book pricing distortions or genuine uncertainty about Espaillat's nomination prospects in this deep-blue district. With 433 days to expiry and a recent 3-cent price decline, this contract lacks sufficient liquidity to confidently assess true market sentiment on the incumbent congressman's renomination chances.

Resolution rules

If Adriano Espaillat wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-13 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 88.8%

IY (No) 82.0%

Adj IY 89%

CRI 1

RV 318%

VR 3.52

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	88.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	82.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	89%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	318%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.52	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:42 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNY13D-26-AESP yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →