How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 85¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 85¢ price potentially unreliable despite the high implied probability. The massive 1424% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing—traders betting against 370+ rigs would earn extraordinary returns if correct, yet the market remains essentially frozen. With 259 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 10, this appears to be a thin, speculative contract where the price may not reflect true consensus on US rig counts.
Resolution rules
If the number of oil rigs in the United States reported at the end of 2026 is at least 370, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOILRIGS-26-370 yes 100