How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (95%) that the US will have at least 390 oil rigs by year-end 2026, yet the massive 865% implied yield on the "No" side and $0 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (95%) that the US will have at least 390 oil rigs by year-end 2026, yet the massive 865% implied yield on the "No" side and $0 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, and the dramatic asymmetry between the 22.9% Yes yield and 865% No yield indicates the market may be overweighting the baseline scenario—worth investigating against current rig count data and energy sector forecasts. With 259 days to expiry and only $83 in open interest, this contract lacks sufficient liquidity to be reliably tradeable.
Resolution rules
If the number of oil rigs in the United States reported at the end of 2026 is at least 390, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOILRIGS-26-390 yes 100