How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?
Prediction markets currently give a 83% probability that How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?. This contract trades at 83¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an 83% probability of the US maintaining at least 400 oil rigs by year-end 2026, but the extremely asymmetric yield profile—641.6% on the No side versus 30.9% on the Yes side—signals severe liquidity constraints with only $13 open interest and $100 daily volume.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 83% probability of the US maintaining at least 400 oil rigs by year-end 2026, but the extremely asymmetric yield profile—641.6% on the No side versus 30.9% on the Yes side—signals severe liquidity constraints with only $13 open interest and $100 daily volume. The sharp 5-point cliff risk index combined with minimal trading activity suggests this market may struggle to attract sufficient volume for reliable price discovery, making the 83¢ price potentially vulnerable to manipulation or sudden repricing if new information emerges about US drilling activity over the next 259 days.
Resolution rules
If the number of oil rigs in the United States reported at the end of 2026 is at least 400, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOILRIGS-26-400 yes 100