How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $24 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 76¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $24 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 76¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—46.9% for Yes versus 422.4% for No—suggest severe mispricing, with the No side offering dramatically outsized returns that typically indicates thin liquidity rather than genuine conviction. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the recent 7-point price rally from 69¢ to 75¢ warrants caution as it may reflect minimal trading activity rather than meaningful market movement.
Resolution rules
If the number of oil rigs in the United States reported at the end of 2026 is at least 420, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOILRIGS-26-420 yes 100