What is the current probability for "2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 235.9% and 14.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This illiquid micro-market on Brad Pitt's 2027 Best Actor nomination carries an extreme 266.6% implied yield on the Yes side, but the $196 open interest and $2.4 daily volume suggest minimal real conviction behind the 18¢ price.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 20/26¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $196·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-BRA

Analysis

4d ago

This illiquid micro-market on Brad Pitt's 2027 Best Actor nomination carries an extreme 266.6% implied yield on the Yes side, but the $196 open interest and $2.4 daily volume suggest minimal real conviction behind the 18¢ price. The wide 8¢ spread and neutral regime indicate pricing uncertainty rather than informed positioning, making the high yield potentially misleading given the thin liquidity and long 624-day runway to resolution.

Resolution rules

If Brad Pitt has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 235.9%

IY (No) 14.7%

Adj IY 118%

CRI 4

Overround 3.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	235.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	118%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:17:48 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-BRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →