2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 307.3% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 307.3% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 8¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary contract, reflecting the complete absence of market participants willing to trade at either extreme. With 624 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract faces significant timing risk around the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, making it difficult to assess whether the current 0¢ price reflects genuine market skepticism about Gladstone's nomination prospects or simply a dead market awaiting liquidity.
Resolution rules
If Lily Gladstone has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-LIL yes 100