2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 91% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 66%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Julianne Moore
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
66¢
Inde Navarrette
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$733
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
465 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Olivia Wilde
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-OLI
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Virginie Efira
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-VIR
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Inde Navarrette
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-IND
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Rosalind Eleazar
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-ROS
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Sandra Hüller
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-SAN
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Emily Blunt
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-EMI
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Zendaya
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-ZEN
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Daisy Edgar-Jones
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-DAI
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Julianne Moore
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-JUL
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Mikey Madison
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-MIK
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Penélope Cruz
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-PEN
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Cynthia Erivo
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-CYN
2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?: Renate Reinsve
KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-REN
Analysis
This represents the likelihood that Julianne Moore receives a Best Actress nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. Moore currently leads competing actresses in the prediction markets by a notable margin, with the second-place candidate at 56 cents suggesting meaningful uncertainty about the field. Her probability reflects recent film performance, industry perception, and typical patterns in Oscar nomination voting. The nomination landscape will shift based on remaining 2026 film releases, critical reception, and guild award nominations (SAG Awards, BAFTA, Golden Globes) which typically emerge between December 2026 and January 2027. These preliminary honors serve as strong predictive signals for Academy voters, making the coming award season the primary driver of nomination probability changes.
- ›Julianne Moore's films releasing in 2026 and their critical/box office reception versus competing actresses' projects
- ›Outcome of early-season awards (Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG nominations) announced January-February 2027, which historically correlate with Oscar nomination patterns
- ›Number and relative prominence of competing actresses' eligible films in the 2026-2027 qualifying window
- ›Moore's voting history with Academy members and recency bias toward recent acclaimed roles
- ›Official Oscar eligibility and submission requirements met by competing candidates' films
What moved the line
- Sep 17Olivia Wilde↑21pp12→33¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Olivia Wilde↑16pp33→49¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Sandra Hüller↓14pp58→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Renate Reinsve↓12pp47→35¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Renate Reinsve↑10pp37→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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