2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations

30-day trend

Analysis

This reflects the current market estimate that Sandra Hüller will receive a Best Actress Oscar nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. At 46%, the market prices her as the leading contender, though substantially competitive with a runner-up candidate at 42%, indicating genuine uncertainty about which actresses will ultimately be nominated. The probability is driven by Hüller's recent film performance visibility, award-season momentum, and historical patterns of which actresses tend to secure nominations. The key catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the official Oscar nomination announcement, currently scheduled for early 2027. Leading up to that date, major factors include continued festival recognition, critical reception of competing performances, guild awards like the SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations (typically announced in January), and any shifts in industry conversation about frontrunners. Market prices reflect traders' assessments of these evolving signals rather than polling or definitive industry consensus.

• ›Sandra Hüller's recent filmography and festival recognition relative to competing actresses
• ›SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations in January 2027 as leading indicators of Oscar nomination likelihood
• ›The specific slate of films released and eligible for the 2027 Oscar cycle, which determines the pool of possible nominees
• ›Historical patterns showing approximately 5 actresses are nominated each year, making the competitive field and relative positioning of candidates critical
• ›Market concentration on Hüller (46%) versus runner-up (42%) suggests traders view this as genuinely competitive rather than a clear frontrunner scenario

What moved the line

• Jul 19Sandra Hüller↓24pp52→28¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 19Mikey Madison↓17pp28→11¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 20Mikey Madison↑17pp11→28¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 23Sandra Hüller↑16pp28→44¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 19Natalie Portman↓14pp18→4¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in entertainment

• Will Winds of Winter be announced?last 3% · 1d
• Will Betty Gilpin be on the list of nominees for Movie/Limited Supporting Actress at the 78th Emmy Awardslast 50% · 15d
• Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awardslast 44% · 35d
• Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026last 72% · 35d
• Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?: 350k-400klast 87% · 35d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds