2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This Sandra Hüller nomination contract shows modest bullish momentum, rising 6¢ over seven days to 53¢, but suffers from severe illiquidity with only $1.81 in 24-hour volume against $1,352.77 open interest—a ratio suggesting potential difficulty exiting positions.
Analysis
This Sandra Hüller nomination contract shows modest bullish momentum, rising 6¢ over seven days to 53¢, but suffers from severe illiquidity with only $1.81 in 24-hour volume against $1,352.77 open interest—a ratio suggesting potential difficulty exiting positions. The 68.7% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the 34% risk-adjusted yield, indicating the market may be overpricing near-term conviction given the 624-day timeline to the 99th Academy Awards and the inherent uncertainty in predicting nominations nearly two years out.
Resolution rules
If Sandra Hüller has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-SAN yes 100