2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market is pricing a 25% probability for Clarissa to receive a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at the 99th Academy Awards, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (234% for Yes vs.
Analysis
This market is pricing a 25% probability for Clarissa to receive a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at the 99th Academy Awards, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (234% for Yes vs. 15% for No) signal severe illiquidity with only $300 in open interest and a wide 7¢ spread. The market has shown minimal price movement over seven days (19¢ to 20¢), suggesting low conviction among traders, though the 624-day timeframe provides ample opportunity for new information about the film's awards trajectory to emerge before the 12/31/2027 close.
Resolution rules
If Clarissa has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMASPLAY-27-CLA yes 100