2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $3 in 24-hour volume and $46 open interest, making the 65¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $3 in 24-hour volume and $46 open interest, making the 65¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—42.4% for Yes versus 80.8% for No—suggest the market may be mispricing the No side, though the minimal trading activity limits confidence in either direction. With 624 days until expiry and a narrow 7¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative niche market that lacks sufficient depth to serve as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If All of a Sudden has been nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-ALL yes 100