2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability indicates market traders estimate approximately 68% odds that "1949 / Fatherland" will receive a nomination for Best International Feature Film at the 2027 Academy Awards. The current assessment reflects the film's standing relative to competing international submissions as of May 2026. The trajectory could shift based on festival performance, critical reception updates, and industry discourse over the coming months leading to the December 2026 submission deadline. The primary catalyst for resolution occurs when the Academy announces official nominations in January 2027, which will definitively determine whether this particular film qualifies. Until then, market participants are pricing in moderate confidence balanced against uncertainty from competing films and potential late-season entries that could affect its nomination prospects.

• ›"1949 / Fatherland" must be officially submitted by its country's Film Academy to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences by the December 2026 international feature submission deadline
• ›The film's ranking relative to other international submissions will become clearer through major film festival selections and industry screenings between May and November 2026
• ›Critical reviews and international film community reception over the next eight months will influence trader confidence in its nomination viability
• ›Competing films from major film-producing nations and emerging regional submissions could reduce the probability if they gain stronger industry momentum
• ›Official nomination announcements occur in January 2027, which is the binary resolution event that will determine the contract outcome

What moved the line

• Jun 21Fjord↑9pp43→52¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 26Minotaur↓6pp43→37¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Hope↑5pp15→20¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds