2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 84% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 77%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Black Ball
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
77¢
All of a Sudden
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$40
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
467 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations
2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Minotaur
KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-MIN
2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Fjord
KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-FJO
2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: 1949 / Fatherland
KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-194
2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Possible Love
KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-POS
2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball
KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-BLA
2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Parallel Tales
KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-PAR
2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: Coward
KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-COW
2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?: All of a Sudden
KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-ALL
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the 2027 Academy Awards will receive nominations in the International Feature Film category—a core component of the Oscars that has occurred consistently for decades. The 86% price indicates traders view this as highly likely but not certain, accounting for risks like major changes to Academy rules or the elimination of this category. The primary driver of movement will be official Academy announcements regarding 2027 Oscar categories, particularly any structural changes to the awards process. The critical resolution point is the Academy's formal announcement of eligible categories for the 2027 ceremony, typically made in the fall preceding the ceremony. Secondary factors include any major institutional decisions affecting the film industry that might influence Academy governance.
- ›The International Feature Film category has been a consistent Oscar category for 20+ years with no official signals of discontinuation
- ›Academy governance changes are rare and typically announced well in advance through official channels, not through informal reporting
- ›The category's elimination would require deliberate institutional action from the Academy, not passive omission
- ›Current market prices on specific films (1949/Fatherland at 68¢, The Black Ball at 84¢) suggest traders expect the category to exist for film selection
- ›The 24-hour volume of $0 across all contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity, meaning the 86% price may reflect older information rather than fresh market signals
What moved the line
- Sep 19Minotaur↓51pp61→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Minotaur↑17pp44→61¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 181949 / Fatherland↓7pp53→46¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 171949 / Fatherland↓5pp58→53¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Fjord↓4pp77→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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