2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows zero trading activity with no open interest and a $0 volume over 24 hours, indicating severe illiquidity despite an unusually wide 8¢ spread and a 166.6% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows zero trading activity with no open interest and a $0 volume over 24 hours, indicating severe illiquidity despite an unusually wide 8¢ spread and a 166.6% implied yield on the Yes side. The 0¢ price suggests minimal market confidence in "The Beloved" receiving a nomination at the 2027 Oscars, though with 624 days to expiry, the market has substantial time for meaningful price discovery if liquidity materializes. The extreme yield asymmetry and low cliff risk score (3) suggest this is a speculative position with limited hedging demand rather than an established betting market.
Resolution rules
If The Beloved has been nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-BEL yes 100