2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows classic illiquidity characteristics with zero volume and open interest despite a 623-day runway to the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific outcome.
Analysis
This market shows classic illiquidity characteristics with zero volume and open interest despite a 623-day runway to the 99th Academy Awards ceremony, suggesting minimal trader interest in this specific outcome. The 8¢ spread and extreme 166.6% implied yield on the Yes side indicate the market is essentially non-functional, with pricing likely reflecting a bid-ask mismatch rather than genuine probability discovery. The low cliff risk score (3) suggests relatively stable resolution mechanics, but the complete absence of trading activity makes this an unreliable venue for assessing whether the film "Hope" will receive an Oscar nomination.
Resolution rules
If Hope has been nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-HOP yes 100