2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $300 open interest, making the 7¢ spread potentially misleading for actual execution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $300 open interest, making the 7¢ spread potentially misleading for actual execution. The 234% implied yield on the Yes side is notably inflated by the low price and long time horizon (624 days), though the risk-adjusted yield of 117% still suggests meaningful expected value for believers in the film's nomination prospects. The minimal price movement (19¢ to 20¢ over seven days) and neutral regime indicate low conviction among traders, so this appears to be a speculative position with limited market depth rather than a liquid pricing mechanism.
Resolution rules
If The Man I Love has been nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-MAN yes 100