What is the current probability for "2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 31¢ (31% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 131.3% and 26.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $173 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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31¢

Bid/Ask 31/39¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $173·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-MIC

7-day price33 snapshots · 2 regime

32¢31¢ current

Apr 810¢Apr 14

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $173 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 130.3% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the neutral regime and 65% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting either mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient capital to efficiently price this niche Oscar category bet. With 624 days until expiry and a stable price over the past week, this appears to be a dormant market awaiting either significant news about the nominee or additional liquidity injection.

Resolution rules

If Michael has been nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 131.3%

IY (No) 26.5%

Adj IY 66%

CRI 2

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	131.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	26.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	66%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:58 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-MIC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →