2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 66% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Digger
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
Dune: Part Three
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$6
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
575 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Clayface
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-CLA
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-DUN
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Werwulf
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-WER
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: UNABOMBER
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-UNA
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: The Social Reckoning
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-SOC
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Rose
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-ROS
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: The Odyssey
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-ODY
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Michael
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-MIC
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Madden
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-MAD
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Digger
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-DIG
2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar nominations?: Cry to Heaven
KXOSCARNOMMAKEUP-27-CRY
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' expectations that the 2027 Best Makeup and Hairstyling category will receive five nominations as currently structured by the Academy. The 64% probability on the leading contract suggests moderate confidence in this outcome, though significant uncertainty remains. The main driver is Academy precedent—this category has maintained five nominations in recent years, but the Academy occasionally adjusts nomination counts based on submission volume and ballot participation. The key catalyst will be the Academy's official announcement of 2027 Oscar eligibility rules and nomination procedures, typically released in late 2026 or early 2027. Market movement would likely follow any public signals about potential reforms to voting procedures or category structure. Current trading volume remains modest, indicating limited institutional participation in these specific contracts.
- ›Academy's historical pattern shows five nominations in this category for recent ceremonies, establishing baseline precedent
- ›Official eligibility and nomination rules announcement, typically 6-9 months before the ceremony, will clarify whether structural changes are planned
- ›Submission volume in makeup and hairstyling films affects whether the five-nomination threshold is sustainable under current ballot design
- ›Changes to Academy voting procedures or technological limitations in the balloting system could force category restructuring
- ›Precedent shifts in other technical categories (where nomination counts have varied) may signal broader willingness to modify this category's structure
What moved the line
- May 29Rose↑15pp1→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Werwulf↓6pp54→48¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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