2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $130 open interest, making the 591.9% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.

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9¢
Bid/Ask 9/16¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $130·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DEA

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $130 open interest, making the 591.9% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 7¢ spread is substantial relative to the 9¢ price, and the high cliff risk index of 10 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or the film's actual Oscar prospects. With nearly two years until expiry and resolution tied to a specific film's nomination chances, this appears to be a niche, speculative position with minimal market depth rather than a liquid betting opportunity.

Resolution rules

If The Death of Robin Hood has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 596.4%
IY (No) 5.8%
Adj IY 298%
CRI 10
Overround 7.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)596.4%
IY (No)5.8%
Adj IY298%
CRI10
Overround7.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
7¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:15:01 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DEA yes 100

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