2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market is pricing in a 66% probability that "Digger" receives a Best Picture nomination at the 99th Academy Awards, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—37.4% for Yes versus 91.5% for No—suggest significant mispricing or that the No side is heavily overvalued relative to downside risk.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 66% probability that "Digger" receives a Best Picture nomination at the 99th Academy Awards, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields—37.4% for Yes versus 91.5% for No—suggest significant mispricing or that the No side is heavily overvalued relative to downside risk. With only $2,270.76 in open interest and a $68 daily volume, liquidity is thin enough that the 5¢ spread may not reflect true market depth, and the modest 1¢ price decline over seven days indicates relatively stable sentiment despite the long 624-day runway to resolution.
Resolution rules
If Digger has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DIG yes 100