2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 45% probability that 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 45¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This illiquid market on "The Social Reckoning" shows minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite a wide 3¢ spread and modest $2,318.57 open interest, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This illiquid market on "The Social Reckoning" shows minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite a wide 3¢ spread and modest $2,318.57 open interest, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable. The 91.5% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 46% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting the market may be overpricing the nomination probability given the film's uncertain prestige trajectory and 624 days until resolution. Recent price movement from 36¢ to 39¢ indicates modest bullish momentum, but the lack of trading depth means large positions could move the price significantly.
Resolution rules
If The Social Reckoning has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-SOC yes 100