2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $86 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $86 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 38¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 99.7% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and suggests either severe mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for the illiquidity risk and long 624-day duration until resolution. The tight 1¢ spread is misleading given the minimal trading activity—this appears to be a speculative niche market where any meaningful trade could move the price substantially.
Resolution rules
If Fjord has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMSPLAY-27-FJO yes 100