2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects the likelihood that a particular screenplay will receive an Original Screenplay nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards (the Oscars held in March 2027). The current 56% probability indicates traders view this outcome as somewhat more likely than not, though uncertainty remains. The screenplay's chances depend primarily on its critical reception, festival performance, and industry buzz as we approach the fall awards season. Major film festivals in 2026—particularly Venice, Telluride, and Toronto—serve as key signals of which films will generate the momentum needed for Oscar consideration. The Golden Globe nominations (typically announced in December 2026) often correlate with Academy voters' preferences and would represent a critical near-term catalyst for clarifying whether this screenplay maintains its current standing or faces competitive pressure from other original screenplays entering the season.

• ›Critical scores and reviews from major outlets upon release will influence perceived screenplay quality and Oscar viability
• ›Festival circuit performance and awards at Venice, Telluride, Toronto, or other major venues historically correlate with subsequent Oscar nominations
• ›Golden Globe nominations in December 2026 typically signal Academy momentum and provide early validation of screenplay strength relative to competitors
• ›Production and release timing relative to the Academy's eligibility window (must be theatrically released between specific dates) affects candidacy
• ›Competitive landscape—the number and quality of other original screenplays released during the eligibility period determines relative strength of this entry

What moved the line

• Jul 10Club Kid↓9pp24→15¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Josephine↓6pp17→11¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 6Obsession↑4pp45→49¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 7The Drama↑4pp11→15¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds