2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a particular screenplay will receive an Oscar nomination in the Best Original Screenplay category at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The current 75% level suggests high confidence among traders, though the runner-up contract at 69% indicates meaningful uncertainty about which specific film will ultimately be nominated. Market pricing is driven by screenwriting recognition across festival circuits, critical reception, and patterns from similar films in recent years. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the official Oscar nominations announcement, typically held in late January. Between now and then, film festival performances, industry guild nominations (Writers Guild, BAFTAs), and trade publication predictions will likely shift probabilities as the voting period approaches. Current trading activity on the leading contract ($16 in 24-hour volume) suggests modest but active interest.

• ›The leading contract (75¢) substantially outprices the runner-up (69¢), indicating market consensus around one screenplay but with 6 percentage points of disagreement still present
• ›Top two contracts account for most probability mass; remaining three combined trade below 30¢, suggesting traders view only two screenplays as serious contenders
• ›24-hour volume concentration ($16 on leader, $13 on runner-up versus near-zero on others) shows trading activity validates the top-two hierarchy
• ›Oscar nomination announcements occur in late January 2027, establishing a hard resolution date roughly 4-5 months from current market snapshot
• ›Screenplay eligibility for nomination depends on specific film release dates, eligibility windows, and Academy rules that may disqualify or add candidates between now and voting

What moved the line

• Sep 18Digger↑34pp8→42¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Digger↓33pp42→9¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18The Debut↑28pp42→70¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19The Debut↓24pp70→46¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Fjord↓22pp32→10¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds