2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that 2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 307% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated by the thin order book and wide 8¢ spread, suggesting this is more of a novelty listing than an active prediction market. With over 600 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, there's significant uncertainty about whether this specific screenplay will even be nominated, making the risk-adjusted 154% yield more meaningful than the headline figure.
Resolution rules
If Josephine has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMSPLAY-27-JOS yes 100