Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 61¢ (61% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 52.3% and 66.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	52.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	66.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	67%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	139%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.95	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

2027 Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominations?

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions