Will Summer Lee be the Democratic nominee for PA-12?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will Summer Lee be the Democratic nominee for PA-12?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is pricing Summer Lee as an overwhelming favorite at 98¢, but the extreme 1548.7% implied yield on the No side and 99% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty beneath the surface—the tight 2¢ spread and modest $16.7k daily volume indicate low liquidity despite the high conviction price.
Analysis
This market is pricing Summer Lee as an overwhelming favorite at 98¢, but the extreme 1548.7% implied yield on the No side and 99% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty beneath the surface—the tight 2¢ spread and modest $16.7k daily volume indicate low liquidity despite the high conviction price. The 24 cliff risk index and 5.98 volatility ratio flag potential for sharp repricing, particularly given the 566-day runway to the November 2027 close, which leaves ample time for primary dynamics to shift the race.
Resolution rules
If Summer Lee wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 PA-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPAPRIMARY-12D26-SLEE yes 100