Will Jon Ossoff and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Jon Ossoff and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 5¢, implying only a 5% chance both Ossoff and Vance become their parties' nominees by 2028.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at just 5¢, implying only a 5% chance both Ossoff and Vance become their parties' nominees by 2028. The astronomical 1261.6% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the massive asymmetry, though minimal liquidity of just $1.72 in open interest and recent downward price movement from 4¢ to 3¢ suggest weak conviction behind either position. With 935 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 32, this remains highly speculative positioning on an outcome that would require both candidates to overcome significant primary competition.
Resolution rules
If Jon Ossoff (D) and JD Vance (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-JOSSJVAN yes 100