Will Josh Shapiro and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
8 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
865 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Kamala Harris” vs “Will Gavin Newsom”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kamala Harris
Will Kamala Harris and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?: Kamala Harris v. JD Vance
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-KHARJVAN
Will Kamala Harris and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?: Kamala Harris v. Marco Rubio
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-KHARMRUB
Cluster 2
Will Gavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?: Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-GNEWMRUB
Will Gavin Newsom and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?: Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-GNEWJVAN
Cluster 3
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?: AOC v. JD Vance
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-AOCJVAN
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?: AOC v. Marco Rubio
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-AOCMRUB
Cluster 4
Will Jon Ossoff
Will Jon Ossoff and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?: Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-JOSSJVAN
Will Jon Ossoff and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees?: Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio
KXPRESMATCHUP-28NOV07-JOSSMRUB
Analysis
This probability reflects the combined chances that both Josh Shapiro becomes the Democratic nominee and JD Vance becomes the Republican nominee for the 2028 presidential election. At 7%, the market suggests this pairing is possible but unlikely. Shapiro faces competition from other Democratic contenders like Gavin Newsom and Jon Ossoff, whose head-to-head matchups against Vance trade at higher probabilities (14% and 3% respectively). The low probability reflects uncertainty about whether Shapiro can consolidate Democratic support while Vance secures the Republican nomination. The primary election season beginning in early 2028 will be the critical event determining these outcomes, though candidate positioning, endorsements, and early state contests throughout 2026-2027 will provide important signals about their viability.
- ›Shapiro's current polling position relative to other Democratic candidates and his electoral performance in upcoming Democratic contests
- ›Vance's status as current Vice President and his support among Republican primary voters compared to potential challengers
- ›Early state primary results and endorsement patterns from key political figures in 2026-2027 that signal momentum
- ›Major economic, geopolitical, or political events between now and 2028 that could substantially alter candidate viability or voter preferences
- ›The competitive dynamics within each party, including whether other candidates consolidate support or fragment the field
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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