Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. Marco Rubio's Republican presidential nomination odds have tightened slightly over the past week (23¢ to 26¢), now trading at 27¢ with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the Yes side offers a 111% implied yield versus just 13.7% for No.
Analysis
Marco Rubio's Republican presidential nomination odds have tightened slightly over the past week (23¢ to 26¢), now trading at 27¢ with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the Yes side offers a 111% implied yield versus just 13.7% for No. The 936-day timeframe and $1.9M open interest suggest this is a moderately liquid market with meaningful conviction, though the $7,866 daily volume indicates relatively thin trading for the contract size, and the 1¢ spread reflects tight pricing. The 56% risk-adjusted implied yield and low cliff risk (3) suggest the market is pricing in genuine uncertainty rather than binary event risk, positioning this as a speculative long for those bullish on Rubio's nomination chances.
Resolution rules
If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESNOMR-28-MR yes 100