Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee a.... This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 20, 2029. This market prices Newsom's chances against Rubio at just 8%, implying the betting public views a Rubio victory as heavily favored, though the extremely thin liquidity ($293.58 open interest, $234.87 daily volume) limits confidence in price discovery.
Analysis
This market prices Newsom's chances against Rubio at just 8%, implying the betting public views a Rubio victory as heavily favored, though the extremely thin liquidity ($293.58 open interest, $234.87 daily volume) limits confidence in price discovery. The 566.5% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the long-shot odds, but the 2¢ spread and modest 7-day uptick from 5¢ to 6¢ suggest minimal conviction either way among traders. With over 1,000 days to expiration, this market remains highly speculative and subject to significant repricing as the 2028 race develops.
Resolution rules
If Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-GNEWMRUBD yes 100