Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$67
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
923 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat” vs “Will Jon Ossoff defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?: AOC defeats JD Vance
KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-AOCJVAND
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?: AOC defeats Marco Rubio
KXPRESOUTCOME-28NOV07-AOCMRUBD
Cluster 2
Will Jon Ossoff defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee
Cluster 3
Will Gavin Newsom defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee
Cluster 4
Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee
Cluster 5
Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom if both become their parties' 2028 presidential nominees. The 7% figure reflects market assessments that while Newsom securing the Democratic nomination is moderately plausible (24¢ implied probability), Rubio winning the general election against him is considered unlikely. The current level is driven by two main considerations: Newsom's relative strength in general-election matchups versus other potential Republican candidates, and historical patterns where incumbent-party nominees face headwinds after serving for extended periods. The biggest near-term catalyst will be the 2026 midterm results in November, which typically signal broader electoral trends and could shift perceptions of each candidate's viability. Additionally, any major economic data, foreign policy developments, or shifts in either candidate's political standing before the 2028 conventions would significantly alter these probabilities.
- ›Newsom's 24¢ nomination probability implies markets see him as a credible but not heavily favored Democratic candidate, requiring Rubio to clear higher odds in a general matchup
- ›Rubio's 23¢ Republican nomination probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether he secures the GOP nomination, directly capping the joint scenario's probability
- ›Historical data shows general-election matchup polls 2+ years before the election have limited predictive power, but current head-to-head metrics between these candidates would inform traders
- ›2026 midterm performance will provide signals about national sentiment and either candidate's coattails, potentially shifting both nomination and general-election probabilities
- ›Economic conditions and incumbent approval ratings between now and November 2028 are major variables that typically determine general-election outcomes
What moved the line
- Jul 8Marco Rubio defeats Gavin Newsom↑5pp8→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterms: Democrats Heavy House Favorites, Senate Toss-Up
Midterm control markets are active: Democrats at 81¢ to win House, Senate toss-up at 43¢. Key primaries (Michigan, Maine) and general election match-ups are driving volume. 2028 presidential nominee markets show no clear frontrunner—Newsom, Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez all below 20¢—while J.D. Vance leads Republican field at 41¢.
Democrats Heavy House Favorites as Senate Battle Tightens
2026 midterm election markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House at 82¢, while the Senate race is a toss-up with Republicans at 55¢. Key swing states: Michigan Senate leans Democratic (69¢), Maine Senate leans Democratic (63¢), and Texas Senate leans Republican (57¢). The Florida gubernatorial primary is a done deal for Byron Donalds at 96¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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