Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Byron Donalds finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing August 18, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14.5 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a highly speculative environment where the 13¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14.5 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a highly speculative environment where the 13¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The implied yield on the Yes side (547.8%) is extraordinarily high relative to the 489-day time horizon, suggesting either severe underpricing or significant tail-risk premium for a relatively niche political outcome. The sharp 7-day price decline from 2¢ to 12¢ followed by stabilization, combined with a modest 1¢ spread, indicates recent volatility but limited depth to absorb larger trades.
Resolution rules
If Byron Donalds finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-KXGOVFLNOMR-2-BDON yes 100