Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Casey DeSantis finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing August 18, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 1,793% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 1,793% implied yield on the Yes side. The recent price movement from 2¢ to 4¢ over seven days suggests emerging interest, but the 1¢ spread and negligible trading activity indicate this contract lacks sufficient depth for confident position-taking. With 489 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 24, this appears to be a speculative, thinly-traded contract where the quoted price may not reflect true market consensus.
Resolution rules
If Casey DeSantis finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-KXGOVFLNOMR-2-CDES yes 100