Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing August 18, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 7-day price surge from 2¢ to 38¢, suggesting minimal real conviction behind the move.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 7-day price surge from 2¢ to 38¢, suggesting minimal real conviction behind the move. The 2683% realized volatility and 20.98 vol ratio indicate highly erratic pricing with virtually no trading activity to anchor valuations. With 489 days until expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears speculative rather than informationally driven, making the current 38¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate for Collins finishing second in Florida's 2026 Republican primary.
Resolution rules
If Jay Collins finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-KXGOVFLNOMR-2-JCOL yes 100