Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 23, 2027. 428 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1336.9% and 5.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1336.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	668%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions