Will Abdul El-Sayed finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will Abdul El-Sayed finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Kalshi, closing August 4, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $81.16 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a highly illiquid micromarket where the 8¢ spread represents meaningful slippage risk.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $81.16 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a highly illiquid micromarket where the 8¢ spread represents meaningful slippage risk. The 149.3% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the low liquidity premium rather than genuine edge, while the 39.6% yield on the No side suggests asymmetric pricing typical of thin venues. With 475 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market has ample time for price discovery, but the minimal trading activity and flat 7-day price action (holding at 34¢) indicate minimal conviction from participants.
Resolution rules
If Abdul El-Sayed finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYPLACE-SENATEMID26-2-AELS yes 100