Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 110000?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 110000?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing June 23, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in predicting NY-12 Democratic primary turnout despite an unusually wide 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in predicting NY-12 Democratic primary turnout despite an unusually wide 8¢ spread. The 0% price reflects either genuine bearish sentiment on exceeding 110,000 votes or simply a lack of market participation, though the 99.4% implied yield on the Yes side indicates substantial profit potential if the threshold is breached. With 431 days until resolution and a neutral regime score, this appears to be an early-stage market awaiting liquidity discovery rather than a signal of strong conviction about low turnout.
Resolution rules
If the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary is above 110000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-110000 yes 100