Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 246.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.5% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether a meeting occurs at all rather than disagreement on Turkey's likelihood.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 246.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 5.5% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether a meeting occurs at all rather than disagreement on Turkey's likelihood. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $1,583 open interest and a 4¢ spread indicates illiquid conditions, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. With nearly 3 years until expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 7, the market has time for geopolitical developments to shift probabilities, but the lack of recent activity suggests limited market conviction on either side.
Resolution rules
If the next Putin and Zelenskyy meeting happens in Turkey before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPUTINZELENSKYYLOCATION-28-TUR yes 100