What is the current probability for "Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 33¢ (33% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 291.3% and 70.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 38% probability of zero Fed rate cuts through 2026, with an exceptionally high implied yield of 230% reflecting the binary nature and long timeframe to January 2027.

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33¢

Bid/Ask 33/34¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $11,414.77·OI $289,594.77·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0

7-day price162 snapshots · 71 regime

42¢33¢ current

Apr 829¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing a 38% probability of zero Fed rate cuts through 2026, with an exceptionally high implied yield of 230% reflecting the binary nature and long timeframe to January 2027. The 1¢ spread and $295k open interest suggest reasonable liquidity, though the 24-hour volume of just $531 is thin relative to OI, and the realized volatility of 257% indicates significant uncertainty around Fed policy expectations. The modest 2-point price movement over 7 days combined with neutral regime conditions suggests the market is relatively stable, though the elevated vol ratio of 1.64 warrants monitoring for potential volatility expansion as economic data accumulates over the next 259 days.

Resolution rules

If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 291.3%

IY (No) 70.7%

Adj IY 291%

CRI 2

RV 209%

VR 1.19

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	291.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	70.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	291%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	209%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.19	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	31.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.577

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 6:52:13 PM

SF edge 32.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +32¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 6:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →