Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football .... This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing September 7, 2028. The 66¢ price implies a two-thirds probability of relocation, but the asymmetric implied yields (25.6% Yes vs.
Analysis
The 66¢ price implies a two-thirds probability of relocation, but the asymmetric implied yields (25.6% Yes vs. 68.1% No) suggest the No side is significantly overpriced relative to risk, indicating potential value on the Yes contracts. With 874 days to expiry, relatively thin liquidity ($527.99 daily volume), and elevated realized volatility at 153%, this market appears to be pricing in genuine uncertainty around Chicago's stadium future, though the recent 2¢ price decline over seven days suggests modest skepticism about near-term relocation momentum.
Resolution rules
If the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate or officially announce a relocation to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRELOCATIONCHI-28-ILL yes 100