Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season
Leader sits at 55% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
A new location in Illinois
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Indiana
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$585
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 7, 2028
718 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: Indiana
KXRELOCATIONCHI-28-IND
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: A new location in Illinois
KXRELOCATIONCHI-28-ILL
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team not relocate/announce a relocation by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: Do not relocate or announce a relocation
KXRELOCATIONCHI-28-REMAIN
Analysis
This probability reflects traders' assessment that the Chicago pro football team will relocate somewhere within Illinois rather than to Indiana or remain in its current location by the 2028 season opener. The 51% probability indicates substantial uncertainty, with relocation to Indiana at 35% and no-move scenarios accounting for the remainder. The main drivers are ongoing stadium negotiations, local and state funding commitments, and NFL ownership decisions. A critical catalyst would be any official announcement from team ownership, the NFL, or Illinois/Chicago officials regarding stadium plans or relocation intent. Trading volume on the Illinois contract ($84 in 24-hour volume) remains modest, suggesting limited recent news flow. The outcome hinges on whether funding gaps push the team toward new Illinois locations or whether Indiana incentives prove more attractive than staying put.
- ›Current stadium lease terms and renovation feasibility—whether Soldier Field upgrades are pursued or deemed insufficient
- ›Illinois and Chicago political commitment to funding mechanisms for a new stadium or renovated facility within the state
- ›Competitive offer structure from Indiana versus the cost and complexity of relocation within Illinois geography and market
- ›NFL ownership stance and timeline for requiring stadium resolution, typically tied to capital expenditure deadlines or lease expiration
- ›Real estate availability and zoning approval pace for potential new stadium sites within Illinois metropolitan areas
What moved the line
- Sep 18Indiana↓3pp35→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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