Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season
Leader sits at 59% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
A new location in Illinois
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
Indiana
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Sep 7, 2028
804 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to a new location in Illinois by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: A new location in Illinois
KXRELOCATIONCHI-28-ILL
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team relocate to Indiana by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: Indiana
KXRELOCATIONCHI-28-IND
Will the Chicago Pro Football Team not relocate/announce a relocation by the first game of the 2028 Pro Football regular season?: Do not relocate or announce a relocation
KXRELOCATIONCHI-28-REMAIN
Analysis
This market estimates a 74% probability that the Chicago professional football team will relocate to another Illinois location before the 2028 season begins. The high probability reflects either significant reported movement toward relocation, announced plans, or stated intentions by team ownership or municipal officials. The market would shift downward if relocation discussions stall, new stadium deals are finalized in Chicago, or ownership signals commitment to remaining. Key catalysts include any formal relocation announcement, completion of stadium financing negotiations, or municipal zoning and development approvals. The relatively modest trading volume suggests limited market participation, which typically indicates either low mainstream attention or concentrated positions among specialized traders following this specific outcome.
- ›Public statements or formal announcements from team ownership regarding relocation timelines and target locations
- ›Status of current stadium lease agreements and any renegotiation outcomes in Chicago proper
- ›Municipal and state government approvals or zoning changes enabling stadium development at potential alternate Illinois sites
- ›Financing announcements for stadium construction or acquisition at candidate relocation sites
- ›NFL approval requirements and timeline for any proposed team relocation within league governance
What moved the line
- Jun 23Indiana↓7pp40→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Indiana↓5pp44→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18A new location in Illinois↑4pp44→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22A new location in Illinois↑3pp51→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Indiana↓3pp47→44¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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