Will Danica Patrick announce a run for an elected public office in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Danica Patrick announce a run for an elected public office in 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 6¢ spread despite modest $2,465 open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in a Patrick candidacy outcome priced at just 4%.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 6¢ spread despite modest $2,465 open interest, suggesting minimal trader interest in a Patrick candidacy outcome priced at just 4%. The astronomical 4366% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the massive asymmetry between the 4¢ price and potential payout, though this theoretical return is largely meaningless given the illiquid market structure and moderate cliff risk score of 24. The recent price decline from 5¢ to 4¢ over seven days, combined with 201 days to expiration, indicates either deteriorating conviction or simply thin order flow rather than meaningful new information.
Resolution rules
If Danica Patrick has announced they will run for an elected public office in the 2026 election after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRUNBYMIDTERM-26NOV03-DPAT yes 100