Will Robert Cekada be confirmed as ATF Director before May 1, 2026?
KXSENATECONFIRM-26MAY01-RCEK · closes May 1, 2026 · 16 days remaining
Price
Last
32¢
Bid
25¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
5¢
24h Volume
$10
Open Interest
$2,581
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 6715.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 746.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.16 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 532% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.72 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 5641% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
97 indicator snapshots · 21 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/14/2026, 8:41:49 PM
About this market
If Robert Cekada is the first person confirmed as ATF Director before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXSENATECONFIRM-26MAY01-RCEK yes 100