Will Charles WalkingChild be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Montana?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Charles WalkingChild be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Montana?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite over a year until resolution, with zero 24-hour volume and only $684 open interest against a wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite over a year until resolution, with zero 24-hour volume and only $684 open interest against a wide 6¢ spread. The price has collapsed 67% over seven days (from 9¢ to 3¢), suggesting either new information about WalkingChild's candidacy or a sharp reassessment of his viability, though the 2867% implied yield on the Yes side indicates minimal conviction in the current pricing. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 combined with neutral regime conditions warrants caution, as this thin market could experience significant repricing if WalkingChild makes unexpected campaign moves before the June 2027 close.
Resolution rules
If Charles WalkingChild wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Montana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEMTR-26-CWAL yes 100