Will Kurt Alme be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Montana
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
365 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kurt Alme be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Montana
Will Kurt Alme be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Montana?: Kurt Alme
KXSENATEMTR-26-KALM
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Kurt Alme will secure the Republican nomination for Montana's U.S. Senate seat. The 85% level suggests he is the frontrunner among Republican candidates in the race. Key factors supporting this probability include his current positioning within the Montana Republican Party and name recognition in the state. The probability could shift based on candidate entry or exit decisions, shifts in endorsements from major state figures, or changes in perceived electability against Democratic opponents. The Montana Republican primary election, typically held in June during election years, represents the key event that will resolve this uncertainty. Primary voting behavior will ultimately determine whether Alme secures the nomination or if a challenger gains momentum to overtake him.
- ›Kurt Alme's standing in recent Montana Republican polling or endorsement counts among state party officials and significant donors
- ›Whether competing Republican candidates enter or remain in the Senate race, and their relative fundraising and organizational strength
- ›Shifts in national or state political dynamics that could affect the Republican primary electorate's candidate preferences
- ›Montana primary election date and voter turnout patterns that could influence nomination outcome
- ›Any significant developments regarding Alme's campaign operations, messaging, or public support levels
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Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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