Will Kurt Alme be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Montana?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Kurt Alme be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Montana?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 86¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with just $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 86¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—18.2% for Yes versus 433% for No—suggest the market may be mispriced or simply too thin to reflect genuine probability, particularly given the modest 2¢ price increase over seven days. With 412 days until expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract lacks sufficient trading activity to serve as a credible probability estimate for Alme's nomination prospects.
Resolution rules
If Kurt Alme wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Montana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEMTR-26-KALM yes 100