Will Susan Wild be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Susan Wild be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2029. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread despite over $480 in open interest, suggesting minimal trader engagement on a nomination outcome still 1,301 days away.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread despite over $480 in open interest, suggesting minimal trader engagement on a nomination outcome still 1,301 days away. The 11¢ price has declined 4¢ over the past week, though the asymmetric implied yields (252.6% for Yes versus 3.1% for No) indicate the market may be underpricing Wild's nomination chances given her current position as a U.S. Representative. The high cliff risk index of 9 combined with the distant expiration and thin liquidity warrants caution for position sizing.
Resolution rules
If Susan Wild wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III Pennsylvania Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATEPAD-28-SWIL yes 100