Will Cristiano Ronaldo play in the World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 91% probability that Will Cristiano Ronaldo play in the World Cup?. This contract trades at 91¢ on Kalshi, closing June 11, 2026. The market is pricing Ronaldo's World Cup participation at 91¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($24 daily volume, $3,172 open interest) and a wide 6¢ spread, suggesting limited conviction despite the high probability.
Analysis
The market is pricing Ronaldo's World Cup participation at 91¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($24 daily volume, $3,172 open interest) and a wide 6¢ spread, suggesting limited conviction despite the high probability. The No side shows an anomalous 6688% implied yield, indicating minimal backing and creating a potential arbitrage opportunity if you believe there's any meaningful chance Ronaldo doesn't make the squad. With 55 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 10, this market is vulnerable to sharp repricing around squad announcements or injury news.
Resolution rules
If Cristiano Ronaldo is on the final squad for their country in at the World Cup 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSOCCERPLAYCRON-26 yes 100