Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Pure Storage be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,214.62 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,214.62 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical 5555% implied yield on the Yes side signals either severe mispricing or that traders view Pure Storage's S&P 500 inclusion in Q2 2026 as highly unlikely, though the stock's $60B+ market cap and strong cloud storage positioning suggest non-trivial odds. The recent sharp price decline from 8¢ to 13¢ over seven days warrants caution, as thin liquidity can amplify volatility and the 76-day timeframe leaves meaningful uncertainty about index reconstitution decisions.
Resolution rules
If Pure Storage is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSP500ADDQ-26JUL01-PSTG yes 100