Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50?

5¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $53,230.96·OI $1,229,953.51·Closes Jan 7, 2027·265d remaining

KXSURVIVOR-26DEC31-JON

7-day price13 snapshots · 114 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Jonathan Young is priced at a stark 4¢ with an extraordinary 3298% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either extremely low conviction among traders or that he's considered a genuine longshot despite being in the contestant pool. The 266-day timeframe and $1.23M open interest provide reasonable liquidity, though the 1¢ spread is tight relative to the price, and the 24-point Cliff Risk Index flags moderate tail risk around resolution. The doubling from 2¢ to 4¢ over seven days warrants attention—this could reflect updated contestant information, betting activity, or market recalibration, though the neutral regime score (0.386) suggests no extreme directional conviction.

Resolution rules

If Jonathan Young is officially declared the winner of Survivor Season 50 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3302.1%

IY (No) 5.7%

Adj IY 1238%

CRI 24

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3302.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1238%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.386

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 8:21:25 AM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/17/2026, 8:08:51 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSURVIVOR-26DEC31-JON yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →